Market report · October 2026 (September data)
Northern Virginia is still a seller's market, but inventory is climbing fast.
Active listings are up about 31% from a year ago and supply reached 2.5 months, while the median price is still up 4.2%. Here are the latest numbers from NVAR and Bright MLS, what they mean, and when it's a good time to buy or sell.
The numbers (September 2026, the latest released)
| Measure | Northern Virginia (NVAR) | Change vs. Sept 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $744,950 | +4.2% |
| Homes sold | 1,250 | −7.5% |
| New pending sales | 1,204 | −16.2% |
| Active listings | 3,477 | +30.7% |
| Months of supply | 2.5 | +29.5% |
| Average days on market | 28 | Flat |
Source: NVAR, Oct 16, 2026 (Bright MLS data as of Oct 12). NVAR covers Fairfax and Arlington counties, Alexandria, Fairfax City, Falls Church, Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.
Across the wider Washington, D.C. metro, Bright MLS reported a $610,000 median price in September (+1.6%), 17.1% fewer new pending sales, 16.9% fewer showings and homes selling in a median 22 days, one day slower than a year ago. Active listings were 20.1% higher than a year earlier (Bright MLS, Oct 12, 2026). In the week ending October 11, new contracts across the Bright MLS region were down 16.4% from a year ago and the median time to contract stretched to 32 days (Bright MLS weekly report, Oct 15).
Buyer's market or seller's market?
Months of supply is how long it would take to sell every home on the market at today's pace. Under about 6 months favors sellers; over 6 favors buyers (The Close).
At 2.5 months, Northern Virginia is still a seller's market. But supply is rising fast: condo and townhome inventory is up 49.7% and detached-home inventory is up 5.7%, while new pending sales fell 16.2%. Buyers have more leverage than at any point this year.
What it means for you
If you're buying
- More choice than a year ago, especially condos and townhomes (inventory up 49.7%)
- Fewer buyers are out this fall, so there's more room to negotiate
- Rates are about 7.4% (Freddie Mac, Oct 15), so compare loan options and Virginia Housing help on our home loans page
If you're selling
- The median price is still up 4.2% year over year, but buyers have more options
- Pricing right in the first two weeks matters more now
- Homes are taking longer to go under contract, so presentation and a strong launch beat a later price cut
When is the best time to buy or sell?
- To sell: Zillow found D.C.-area homes listed in the last two weeks of April sold for about 1.6% more, roughly $9,900 (Zillow, Mar 2026). Realtor.com's best week nationally was April 12–18 (National Mortgage News).
- To buy: November through January usually brings the fewest buyers and the most room to negotiate, and this fall's 16% drop in new pending sales points the same way. Spring has more listings but more competition.
- Planning a spring sale? The winter months are the time to plan repairs, staging and pricing so you can launch in that late-April window.
- The real answer depends on your rate, your timeline and the home. A short call can map it out.
Industry news
- Northern Virginia condo and townhome inventory is up 49.7% from a year ago, the second straight month of fast growth (NVAR, Oct 16)
- Bright MLS calls it "a stalling housing market this fall": region-wide closed sales fell 5.2% and the $425,000 median rose just 1.2%, the slowest price growth since May 2023 (Bright MLS, Oct 12)
- Bright MLS rule changes were set to start tentatively October 14, 2026: new "Registered" and "Ready to Market" listing statuses, plus seller choices on showing price, price history and days on site online (NVAR, Sept 30)
- 2027 conforming loan limits aren't official yet; FHFA is expected to announce them in late November, and some lenders are already using early limits of $845,000 to $850,000 (National Mortgage Professional, Oct 9)
- NVAR supports the More Homes on the Market Act, which would double the capital-gains exclusion on home sales (NVAR, Sept 24)
Updated monthly after NVAR and Bright MLS release new data. Next update: mid-November 2026 with October numbers.